The Maxillofacial Center for Diagnostics & Research

CARCINOMA IN SITU OF THE UPPER AERODIGESTIVE TRACT: INCIDENCE, TIME TRENDS AND FOLLOW-UP IN ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA, 1935-1984

Authors: Bouquot JE, Kurland LT, Weiland LH.


The first incidence rates for a rare oral precancer (noninvasive cancer?).  

Published in Cancer in 1988; 61:1691-1698.


Authors

Jerry E. Bouquot, D.D.S., M.S.D., * Professor and Chairman, Department of Oral Pathology, West Virginia University School of Dentistry; Professor, Department of Pathology, WVU School of Medicine; Leonard T. Kurland, M.D., Dr.P.H., Professor and Chairman, Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Medical School; and Louis H. Weiland, M.D., Professor, Department of Surgical Pathology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Medical School

Note: This investigation was supported in part by Research Grant GM-14231, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, and was presented to the 1986 Biennial Congress of the International Association of Oral Pathologists (Edinburgh, Scotland).  Dr. Bouquot was on sabbatical leave with the Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Mayo Clinic, during part of this investigation.


ABSTRACT

Epidemiologic analyses of carcinoma in situ (CIS) of the upper aerodigestive tract (UAT) are virtually nonexistent. The present investigation summarizes the total UAT CIS experience of a white, middle class community from 1935 through 1984. Average annual incidence rates varied between genders (3.1 per 100,000 person-years for males versus 0.6 per 100,000 person-years for females), and has increased from 1.5 to 3.1 lesions per 100,000 person-years between 1935-1964 and 1965-1984. Virgin CIS lesions represented 13% of all UAT carcinomas and the vermilion borders of the lips accounted for 42% of all UAT CIS cases. Age-specific incidence rates for males demonstrated a continuous increase to 40.5 per 100,000 males over 75 years of age. A detailed clinicopathologic analysis of these lesions is provided.


INTRODUCTION

A dearth of epidemiologic data relating to the "preinvasive malignancy", carcinoma in situ (CIS) of the upper aerodigestive tract (UAT), has lead to the acceptance of clinicopathologic, hospital--based investigations for its characterization (1-21). The data from the latter, however, cannot be said to represent any population beyond that of the particular hospital from which the study originated (22-24). Hence, our understanding of CIS is necessarily skewed, probably to the more difficult or unusual referral cases.

The present investigation is the first to offer an epidemiologic and clinicopathologic (clinicoepidemiologic) characterization of CIS from a pool of patients known to represent virtually all cases of UAT CIS and invasive carcinoma in a delineated population, (Rochester, Minnesota, from 1935 through 1984).


METHODS AND DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND

Rochester, Minnesota is uniquely suitable for clinicoepid-emiologic studies. For many decades medical practice there has centered at the Mayo Clinic, and approximately 90% of the entire population registers in that institution for primary or specialty health care during a given three year period. Such registration requires the entry and indexing of all diagnoses made during each visit. A very large proportion of a delineated population, then, uses a single major medical center not only for secondary and tertiary care, but for primary care as well. Additionally, during the past half century 50-70% of resident deaths in any given decade have been autopsied.

For the local population, diagnoses from health care providers in Rochester and adjacent counties who are not affiliated with the Clinic, and from those hospitalized at the two large regional tertiary care facilities in Minneapolis (125 km. distant) are also entered into a centralized diagnosis and indexing system at the Mayo Clinic. This comprehensive records-linkage system is thought to ensure the identification of virtually all persons from Rochester in whom serious illness has been diagnosed (25). For a disease such as UAT cancer, case ascertainment is considered to have remained constant and extremely high throughout the fifty years encompassed by this study.

The validity of epidemiological data from such a small community (1984 population estimate=58,692) has been well established (26-29), and during the past two decades approximately eighty epidemiology papers relating to neoplasia in this and the surrounding Olmsted County population have been published. For this investigation, all medical, surgical, histopathologic, and autopsy records of Rochester residents given a diagnosis of neoplastic or precancerous disease of the mucous membranes and salivary glands of the UAT between January 1, 1935 and December 31, 1984 were reviewed after retrieval from the files of the Mayo Clinic and its affiliated hospitals, the Olmsted Medical and Surgical Group, the Olmsted Community Hospital, the Rochester State (mental) Hospital, all hospitals in counties adjacent to Olmsted County where Rochester residents may have gone for care, and the University of Minnesota and Veterans Administration Hospitals in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

All cases of sarcoma, neoplastic and inflammatory cervical lymph node disease, and facial skin cancer were also reviewed. In total, the medical records of more than 4,000 Rochester residents were reviewed, including those with such nonspecific diagnoses as "lesion", "mass", "ulcer", "irritation", etcetera of the UAT. Anatomic UAT subsites investigated, with Ninth Revision ICD codes (30), included: lip vermilion (ICD code=140.1-2); oral cavity (ICD=140.3-5, 141, 143-145); major salivary glands (ICD=142); pharynx (ICD=146-149); nasal and paranasal sinuses (ICD=160, excepting 160.1); and larynx (ICD=161). The present paper is concerned only with labial vermilion and internal UAT mucosal sites (excluding major salivary glands), which are herein referred to collectively as UAT or indexed sites.

Only histologically proven carcinomas of indexed sites were accepted; 99.4% of all UAT malignancies were histologically confirmed at diagnosis. Microscopic slides or tissue blocks were still available for 91.6% of the identified cases. The latter were re-examined by a single pathologist (JEB) who was unaware of the original microscopic diagnoses during his review. Diagnoses that differed substantially from the original were additionally reviewed by a second pathologist (LHW).

The term carcinoma in situ is herein used histologically to connote rather severe epithelial atypia from the basement membrane to the surface of the mucosa, or to the overlying parakeratin layer if  such exists. The authors, in this regard, agree with Shafer (14), Batsakis (19), Waldron (31), and others (8,12,18,32) who contend that the classic CIS definition, which does not accept even an attenuated keratin layer, is far too narrow for practical considerations and has not been widely utilized. Lesions without "top-to-bottom" change were considered to be severe or lesser dysplasias and excluded from the study. Dermatopathologic tradition has allowed the use of the term CIS in certain skin masses, most noteably actinic keratoses (33). Several vermilion border CIS lesions in the present paper are of this type and most likely originated on the skin of the lip, but had extended onto the vermilion surface by the time of diagnosis.

Only those patients who had resided in Rochester for at least one year prior to diagnosis were considered bona fide residents. Death certificates were obtained, regardless of the location or cause of death, for all cases of carcinoma identified. Age-adjustment of incidence rates is to the 1970 U.S. white standard population and incidence data are based on the number of individual carcinomas, not the number of affected persons.


RESULTS

From 1935 through 1984, 35 "virgin" (without adjacent or inclusive invasive malignancy) and 13 "associated" (juxtaposed to or containing invasive carcinomas) CIS lesions were identified in 47 white residents of Rochester. Six of the associated lesions were predominantly CIS in nature, with only a small focus of invasion through the basement membrane noted microscopically. These are hereafter referred to as "microinvasive" CIS lesions and are assumed to be lesions which were fortuitously identified at the very earliest stage of transformation into invasive disease.  The 48 CIS lesions diagnosed in Rochester residents represented 18.8% of all UAT carcinomas diagnosed from 1935 through 1984. When only virgin CIS lesions were included, this proportion was still a substantial 13.1%.  

The most common indexed site of involvement was the vermilion border of the lips, accounting for 41.7% of all CIS lesions diagnosed. This anatomic subsite was also the most common site for invasive carcinomas of the UAT in this population and demonstrated the strongest male predilection for all UAT subsites, approximately 10 males:1 female for both CIS and invasive carcinoma. Sites of least CIS involvement, the nasal and paranasal sinuses, were likewise the sites of least frequency of invasive disease.

The average annual incidence rate for all forms of CIS in this predominantly white population was 2.4 per 100,000 person-years, with males being affected almost eight times more frequently than females (Table 1). When only virgin CIS lesions were considered, the average annual incidence rate decreased to 1.8 and the male predilection was 5.2 to 1.  The average annual incidence rate for total CIS of the UAT doubled between 1935-1964 and 1965-1984, predominantly due to changes in rates for internal mucosal CIS (Table 2). The large increase in the mucosal CIS incidence rate, from 0.6 to 2.1 CIS lesions per 100,000 person-years (0.4 to 1.5 for virgin lesions), was not reflected by a similar rate increase for invasive carcinomas of these same UAT sites (Table 2). Invasive carcinomas of the lip vermilion, in fact, dramatically decreased during the half century of observation, from 12.9 in 1935-1944 to 1.7 in 1975-1984, while vermilion CIS incidence remained unchanged.

Additionally, the average age at CIS diagnosis, 64.9 years (range: 41-83 years), was lower for persons affected with mucosal lesions than for those with vermilion lesions (60.1 versus 69.8 years of age, respectively) (Table 3). Age-specific incidence rates for total UAT CIS demonstrated a continuously increasing incidence throughout life, with an increasing desparity between males and females as ages increased (Figure 1).  The middle-aged male rate increased almost five-fold by the end of life (8.8 vs 40.5 lesions per 100,000 person-years for males 45-54 years of age and males 75 years and older, respectively). Figure 2, however, demonstrates that the continuing increase after age 65 is due entirely to vermilion CIS lesions and that, in reality, mucosal CIS incidence decreased after 65 years of age. Associated CIS lesions, furthermore, contributed more to overall CIS incidence in the older age brackets (Figure 3).

While the total number of CIS cases in the present investigation was somewhat small, the uniqueness of this cohort, resulting from its relative lack of referral biases, seemed to warrant an attempt to clinically characterize these patients and their lesions. Table 3 offers such a characterization and is summarized in the following paragraphs.

Almost all patients with UAT mucosal CIS lesions smoked tobacco in one form or another, and four of every five with vermilion lesions were smokers. A surprisingly high proportion of mucosal lesion patients were alcohol "abusers" (68%)--a condition seldom reported (7%) in the group of patients with vermilion CIS lesions. The typical CIS lesion in this cohort was 1.4 cm. in greatest diameter at diagnosis, and patients had been aware of a change in the affected area for an average of 2.7 years prior to diagnosis.

Mucosal CIS lesions had a much shorter average duration before diagnosis (2.1 years) than did vermilion lesions (3.4 years), even though lesion size was similar for both anatomic subsites. Approximately 82% of all lesions were at least partially white or leukoplakic and virtually all vermilion lesions were such.  Furthermore, more than half of all vermilion CIS lesions were ulcerated at diagnosis, with another one quarter being found at the bases of actinic keratoses or cutaneous horns.  

Internal mucosal CIS lesions were less likely to be leukoplakic than vermilion lesions, and much more likely to demonstrate areas of erythroplakia (clinical red plaques) (Table 3). Approximately 20% of mucosal erythroplakias were simple erythematous macules while the rest were interspersed with leukoplakia (erythroleukoplakia). Ulceration was a minor component of UAT mucosal CIS lesions.

All cases of UAT CIS in this cohort were treated immediately after diagnosis and patients were followed for an average of 10.5 years (range: 7 months to 29 years) (Table 3 and Figure 4). As expected in an investigation surveying half a century of disease experience, a large proportion (58%) of all identified patients died prior to the end of the observation period, usually of nonmalignant disease.

All vermilion CIS lesions were completely removed or destroyed via conservative surgery, usually stripping with or without diathermy, cryosurgery, or laser destruction. None recurred and none developed into invasive disease, not even those with initial microscopic foci of superficially invasive carcinoma.   In contrast, 15% of virgin mucosal CIS lesions recurred, even though several were treated more aggressively than vermilion lesions (Table 3). Ten percent of virgin mucosal lesions became invasive after initial therapy. No microinvasive CIS recurred and the three virgin mucosal CIS recurrences occured at 12, 14, and 55 months after diagnosis. One of the latter lesions actually recurred four times within four years, with microinvasive squamous cell carcinoma being additionally diagnosed on the second and fourth recurrences.  This lesion was found in the only Rochester resident to present with two CIS lesions of separate UAT subsites.

Only one patient in this cohort died of invasive squamous cell carcinoma apparently transforming from a virgin CIS lesion, but two patients were found to have invasive squamous cell carcinomas of other UAT subsites at the time of CIS diagnosis and two more were diagnosed with invasive disease of other indexed sites, one before (no radiotherapy given) and one after a CIS diagnosis. These invasive lesions were all several centimeters from the CIS lesions, with normal mucosa intervening.

Fifteen of the 47 CIS patients were diagnosed with non-UAT cancers during 1935-1984. All but two were carcinomas and eight arose from the lower digestive (n=7) or respiratory (n=1) tracts.  Ten of these 15 patients died of their non-UAT malignancies.


DISCUSSION

The earliest epidemiological reports of CIS of the UAT provided little more than relative frequencies (34,35). A report of the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) survey (36) has, however, provided gender- and age-specific incidence data for these lesions in approximately 20,000,000 people. The SEER data are provided in a rather raw form and incorporated into tables pertaining predominantly to invasive cancers, perhaps explaining why the NCI data have not yet been cited in the literature (37).

Table 4 compares virgin CIS incidence rates for U.S. whites in the SEER survey with the present Rochester rates for similar lesions, demonstrating excellent correlation between the two studies for laryngeal CIS, but a considerably higher rate for oral/pharyngeal CIS in the Rochester population (1.4 per 100,000 person-years versus 0.2 in the SEER population). Much of the latter difference disappears, however, when vermilion CIS lesions are excluded from the Rochester data.  The higher rate determined for vermilion CIS lesions in the Rochester population could, of course, be a real difference between the two populations. It is more likely, however, to be related to the different referral and reporting patterns of the two investigations. It would appear logical that the lip vermilion would be the one UAT subsite least likely to have a CIS lesion reported from it because such lesions are considered quite innocuous, are often treated in an office rather than a hospital setting, and are often treated by oral surgeons, a group of health professionals minimally involved in the SEER data collection (24,37).

Age-specific incidence rates varied considerably between the two investigations, with Rochester residents demonstrating a much higher incidence in late life than that noted for the larger SEER population (compare Figures 1 and 5). Excluding vermilion CIS cases from the Rochester data, however, domonstrates a similar incidence decrease in late life for males in the two populations, even though Rochester rates uniformly exceed the SEER rates in all age brackets (compare mucosal rates in Figure 2 with male rates in Figure 5). This would appear to further substantiate a low case ascertainment rate for vermilion CIS in the SEER investigation.

With only two exceptions (39,44), the frequency with which treated virgin UAT CIS cases in the present study recurred as invasive carcinoma (5%) was lower than transformation rates from the clinicopathologic literature (range=3.5-50.0%; mean=18.6%), and was considerably lower than the expected transformation rate had the lesions remained untreated (range=33.3-90.0%; mean=62.1%) (Table 5).   This, as well as the low rate of recurrence without invasion (4%), is most likely secondary to the relatively small size of the Rochester lesions at diagnosis. Previous investigators have demonstrated a direct correlation between lateral clinical extension and the risk of invasion in these lesions (41). The very high transformation rates reported by Silverman et al (50) and Amagasa et al (18) for oral CIS lesions are, in this light, somewhat misleading, as both series included a high proportion of large lesions.  Silverman et al, in fact, excluded small lesions by study design and further complicated the issue by grouping severe dysplasias with CIS, as did several other authors (Table 5). Hellquist et al (48,49) have demonstrated that when CIS and severe dysplasia are both included in follow-up studies, those lesions most akin to "pure" CIS (top-to-bottom dysplasia without keratin) are least likely to become invasive.

It is encouraging to note such a low transformation rate with minimal surgery in the Rochester cohort, and the fact that virgin CIS represented a much greater proportion (13%) of the total UAT carcinoma experience in the Rochester population than had heretofore been reported (13,17,32,41,46,54). The present study also offers insight into the extent of the case selection biases in clinicopathologic surveys of UAT CIS. The largest clinicopathological investigation of laryngeal and pharyngeal cancer patients, for example, found that only 2.8% of 1,912 affected patients had CIS of these anatomic sites, all others were diagnosed with invasive disease (16). The equivalent Rochester proportion was 14.3%.

It seems reasonable, then, that such relatively innocuous lesions are being treated locally, rather than being referred to the large teaching and research centers from which clinicopathologic data usually originate. Auerbach et al's (9) finding of laryngeal CIS in 16% of 644 consecutive autopsies of cigarette smokers further substantiates the present investigation's conclusion that CIS is a greater contributor to total UAT carcinoma than is usually thought.

In this light, furthermore, Mashberg et al's (10) report that 29% of 158 very small oral carcinomas were partially or completely CIS implies that early detection techniques will lead to an increase in the proportion of diagnosed CIS cases and a subsequent improved prognosis for affected patients. In fact, this has already been demonstrated in the Rochester population wherein only 6.3% of early (1935-1964) UAT mucosal carcinomas were CIS while 18.3% of more recent (1965-1984) UAT mucosal lesions were such.

A final significant difference between the present report and clinicopathologic reports in the literature was the surprizingly high proportion of unassociated (virgin) CIS lesions in the Rochester cohort. Only seven of 48 (15%) UAT CIS lesions were found adjacent to invasive carcinomas, while literature reports and textbooks have usually indicated that it was quite unusual to find CIS of indexed sites without juxtaposed invasive disease (7,11,13,19,21, 55). This might indicate that teaching centers are diagnosing CIS cases predominantly as incidental lesions in patients referred for invasive carcinoma. The excellent studies by Miller and Fisher (5,6,12,32,41) seem to be the most notable exceptions. Their series of laryngeal cases is the largest yet reported (n=203) and all appear to be virgin CIS lesions.

Much is yet to be learned about the clinicopathology and epidemiology of CIS of the UAT before we can claim a thorough understanding of this disease, especially as it is found in the mouth and pharynx. The fact that the present study, with only 41 virgin lesions, is the second largest collection of such cases reported (Table 5) certainly emphasizes this point, while at the same time reinforcing the importance of the Rochester data. As the first epidemiologic analysis, furthermore, the presently reported investigative results take on added significance. The authors present this information, however, not as a definitive characterization of CIS of the UAT, but as simply another step in the ongoing study of this most fascinating disease.


CONCLUSIONS

The rate per 100,000 person-years for carcinoma in situ (CIS) of the upper aerodigestive tract (UAT) in the population of Rochester, MN was 3.1 for males and 0.6 for females. Lip vermilion lesions were more common in males and intraoral mucosal lesions were more common in females, although female disease was uncommon enough (n=7) to make this association tenuous. The rates in Rochester are higher than those reported be SEER; this suggests underreporting in SEER rather than an excess in the Rochester population. The typical patient with an internal mucosal CIS lesion (excluding labial vermilion) was a 60.1 year old white male who used tobacco and alcohol in excess. The typical patient with a CIS of the vermilion border was a 69.6 year old white male who worked outdoors and used tobacco, but not alcohol, excessively.

The typical internal mucosal CIS lesion was 1.4 cm. in size, was associated with leukoplakia clinically, and had been present for 2.1 years prior to CIS diagnosis. The typical vermilion CIS lesion was 1.3 cm. in size, was also associated with leukoplakia, and had been noted for 3.4 years prior to CIS diagnosis. Almost half of all cases of internal mucosal CIS presented with erythroplakia, usually admixed with leukoplakia (erythroleukoplakia). After an average of 10 years of follow-up after treatment, one-third of virgin internal mucosal CIS lesions recurred and 10% transformed into invasive squamous cell carcinomas. No vermilion lesions recurred or transformed.

The average annual incidence rate for CIS of the UAT mucosa has tripled since 1935-1964, although vermilion lesions have remained essentially unchanged over the half century of observation. Age-specific incidence rates demonstrate that CIS frequency increases throughout life for males, to a peak of 40.5/100,000 person-years after 74 years of age, while the rates for females remained low for all but the oldest age bracket.


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Table 1: Gender- and site-specific average annual incidence rates for CIS of the UAT in Rochester, Minnesota, 1935-1984

(population bases: males=900,312 person-years; females= 1,102,916 person-years).

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# CASES | # NEW CASES/100,000 PERSON-YEARS

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ANATOMIC SITE MALES FEMALES TOTAL | MALES FEMALES TOTAL

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Lip vermilion 18 (13)* 2 (2)* 20 (15)*| 2.0 (1.4)* 0.2 (0.2)* 1.0 (0.8)*

Oral cavity 9 (5) 3 (3) 12 (8) | 1.0 (0.6) 0.3 (0.3) 0.6 (0.4)

Pharynx 6 (3) 1 (1) 7 (4) | 0.7 (0.3) 0.1 (0.1) 0.4 (0.2)

Larynx 7 (6) 1 (1) 8 (7) | 0.8 (0.7) 0.1 (0.1) 0.4 (0.4)

Nasal/Paranasal 1 (1) 0 (0) 1 (1) | 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1)

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Total UAT 41 (28) 7 (7) 48 (35) | 4.6 (3.1) 0.6 (0.6) 2.4 (1.8)

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    * numbers in parentheses refer to virgin CIS lesions only, that is, those unassociated with invasive carcinomas.


Table 2: Time trends in average annual incidence rates for CIS of the UAT in Rochester, Minnesota, 1935-1984, both genders (population bases: 1935-1964=913,305 person-years; 1965-1984=1,089,923 person-years).

|----------------------------------------------------|

| # NEW CASES PER 100,000 PERSON-YEARS * |

|------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|

| YEAR OF DIAGNOSIS | LIP VERMILION | INTERNAL MUCOSA | TOTAL |

|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|

| 1935 - 1964 | 1.0 (8.0) ** | 0.6 (9.6) ** | 1.5 (17.6) **|

| 1965 - 1984 | 1.0 (3.2) | 2.1 (11.5) | 3.1 (14.7) |

|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|

| ALL DECADES | 1.0 (6.0) | 1.4 (10.5) | 2.4 (16.5) |

|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|

     *includes both virgin and associated CIS lesions.

   **numbers in parentheses refer to invasive carcinomas only.


Table 3: Various clinical features of combined virgin and microinvasive CIS lesions of the UAT in Rochester, Minnesota, 1935-1984, both genders. All proportions are determined using only cases with adequate information in medical records.

|----------------------------------------------

| VERMILION | MUCOSA | TOTAL |

| (n=17) | (n=24) | (n=41) |

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|PATIENT CHARACTERISTICS: | | | |

| Males | 88.2 % | 79.2 % | 82.9 % |

| Average age | 69.8 years| 60.1 years| 64.9 years|

| Tobacco smoker | 80.0 % | 93.3 % | 90.3 % |

| Alcohol abuse * | 6.7 % | 68.4 % | 40.0 % |

| Outdoor occupation | 64.7 % | 20.0 % | 39.0 % |

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|LESION CHARACTERISTICS: | | | |

| Average size | 1.3 cm. | 1.4 cm. | 1.4 cm. |

| Average duration | 3.4 years| 2.1 years| 2.7 years|

| With leukoplakia | 100.0 % | 66.7 % | 82.4 % |

| With erythroplakia | 0.0 % | 38.9 % | 25.0 % |

| With ulceration | 56.3 % | 16.7 % | 32.4 % |

| With mass ** | 25.0 % | 0.0 % | 11.8 % |

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|PROGNOSTIC FEATURES: | | | |

| Average # years followed | 11.8 years| 9.6 years| 10.5 years|

| Rx=minor surgery | 100.0 % | 83.3 % | 90.2 % |

| Recurred | 0.0 % | 12.5 % | 7.3 % |

| Invaded (sq. cell ca.) @ | 11.8 % | 25.0 % | 19.5 % |

|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|

   * identified as "alcoholic", "heavy drinker", or with a "drinking problem" in the medical record.

 ** cutaneous horns and actinic keratoses.

 @ microinvasive at time of treatment (n=2 vermilion & 4 mucosal lesions) or became invasive on recurrence (n=2).


Table 4: Comparison of average annual incidence rates for virgin UAT CIS in the U.S. white population, 1973-1977 (36), and the Rochester, Minnesota population, 1935-1984, males and females.

|-------------------------------------------------------------

| # NEW CASES PER 100,000 PERSON-YEARS

|-------------------------------------------------------------

| MALES | FEMALES | TOTAL |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

| ANATOMIC SITE | U.S. ROCHESTER | U.S. ROCHESTER | U.S. ROCHESTER |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|ORAL & PHARYNX | 0.4 2.3 (0.9)* | 0.1 0.5 (0.4)* | 0.2 1.4 (0.6)* |

|LARYNX | 0.5 0.7 | 0.1 0.1 | 0.3 0.4 |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

|TOTAL UAT CIS ** | 0.9 3.1 (1.6) | 0.2 0.6 (0.4) | 0.5 1.8 (1.0) |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|

    * numbers in parentheses refer to incidence rates with lip vermilion lesions excluded.


Table 5: A summary of transformation rates (into invasive carcinoma) from the largest reported series of virgin UAT CIS cases which provided adequate follow-up information, listed by year of publication.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

YEAR # CIS ANATOMIC %

AUTHOR(S) PUBL. CASES SITE TRANSFORMED

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TREATED CIS CASES:

Altman, et al (39) 1952 29 larynx 3.5

McGavran, et al (40) 1960 18 * larynx 11.1

Miller,Fisher (6,8,41) 1971 203 larynx 15.8

Mincer, et al (42) 1972 16 * oral 11.1

Banoczy, Csiba (43) 1976 68 * oral 13.2

Pene, Fletcher (44) 1976 26 larynx 4.0

Pinborg, et al (45) 1977 21 * oral 14.3

Doyle, et al (46) 1977 28 larynx 7.1

Elman, et al (47) 1979 81 * larynx 17.0

Hellquist, et al (48,49) 1982 20 * larynx 25.0

Silverman, et al (50) 1984 22 * oral 36.4

Amagasa, et al (18) 1985 12 oral 50.0

Bouquot, Kurland, Weiland 1987 41 UAT 4.9

UNTREATED CIS CASES:

Norris, Peale (51) 1963 16 larynx 33.3

Kleinsasser (52) 1963 20 larynx 90.0

Hintz, et al (53) 1981 27 larynx 63.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL, TREATED CASES 559 18.6 **

TOTAL, UNTREATED CASES 63 62.1 **

--------------------------------------------------------------------

     * includes severe epithelial dysplasias in addition to CIS

   ** not weighed according to size of patient cohorts; exludes present data (i.e. from Bouquot, Kurland, Weiland).


FIGURE LEGENDS

Figure 1: Age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years for total UAT CIS experience in Rochester, Minnesota, 1935-1984, for males and females.

Figure 2: Total UAT CIS age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 Rochester males, 1935-1984, for lip vermilion and internal mucosal UAT surfaces.

Figure 3: Age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 Rochester males, 1935-1984, comparing virgin UAT CIS lesions (dotted lines) with associated CIS lesions (i.e. those adjacent to invasive carcinoma or with small focus of microinvasion within them) (solid lines).

Figure 4: Duration of follow-up time after UAT CIS diagnosis for affected Rochester residents (n=47), 1935-1984. Striped portion of bars represents patients still alive at the last date of follow-up observation (n=20).

Figure 5: Age-specific incidence rates for UAT CIS in the U.S. population as represented by the SEER data; all races, both genders (36).